By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)
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Additional resources for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)
For the case where support personnel meet with each expert privately, Hora (1993) indicates that the elicitation session is usually under the control of the normative analyst (probability specialist). The analyst has three goals: to extract rationales for judgments, to quantify judgments, and to assist the expert in making the elicited PDFs accurate reflections of the expert's knowledge. Achieving these goals may require extensive interactions between the expert and the analyst. , 1992). As the elicitation session draws to a close, the expert is presented with a summary of his estimates.
Environmental Protection Agency Dr. James Crapo, Duke University Dr. Charles Plopper, University of California, Davis Dr. Russell L. Sherwin, University of Southern California Dr. Walter Tyler, University of California, Davis Dr. Elaine Wright, General Motors Corporation Prepare background information A carefully developed encoding protocol was crucial to the success of the project. This protocol ensured that the questions for the experts were always phrased identically, that specific assumptions and definitions were always the same, and that the encoding process proceeded similarly for each of the participants.
The meeting provides experts with the opportunity to begin discussing whether issues should be excluded or modified and to be presented with alternative data sources and models. Project staff may propose division of the problem into simpler pieces that can be answered more easily by the experts. The experts are encouraged to challenge the proposed division and to begin considering modifications. 6 Analysis of Issues, Questions and Background Information by Experts The experts are allowed several weeks to study the issues and questions, to exchange information, and to propose and discuss alternative consolidations.
A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report) by National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)